MOZAMBIQUE: disorder, disturbance, chaos and uncertainty
If we had to define in one word what is happening in Mozambique, it would be very difficult to choose the one that best fits the present.
On the political level, with obvious ramifications in other aspects - social, economic and military - there is some uncertainty as to the type of direction that the peace plans will follow after the death of RENAMO's historic leader Afonso Dhlakama.
Acting leader Ossufo Momade (a parliamentarian and general in reserve), decided to transfer his residence to the Gorongosa Sierra, where Dhlakama lived and established it as the last great RENAMO's stronghold.
This new step, perpetrated by the national political commission of the main opposition party, may not be a cause for alarm but clearly raises many questions, especially in the development of a definitive peace agreement for the country.
It is true that the Mozambican parliament has already reached a consensus on the new draft of the Constitution which will allow for greater decentralization, an issue already being debated by President Nyusi and Dhlakama. Yet, the process of RENAMO's demilitarization and the integration of its forces under the aegis of FRELIMO is still at stake. For instance, how should one act with the military who are too old to be integrated? Dhlakama's legacy cannot be wasted, even knowing that RENAMO has long been accustomed to the noise of weapons.
As for Nyusi's presidency, it is far from meeting the expectations set. Although he enhances Mozambique is back on the "rails of progress," what we realize is a disturbing continuation of the same vices of the past that naturally lead to the extreme poverty of its people.
In fact, what we observe is a deterioration and degradation of the country's conditions in numerous areas. Contrary to what is broadcasted, the fourth President of Mozambique didn't find the state coffers empty. Nyusi found about 71.5 billion Meticais in various bank accounts of public institutions, which in violation of the law, did not channel the amounts to the single account of the treasury. This value has been used outside the state budget.
But beyond these issues, we observe a disturbing environment, namely the economic crisis that led to cuts in health, education, agriculture and the fact that state agents weren't held responsible yet for allegedly indebting illegally the country. The fight against corruption still has a long way to go.
Alarming also are the attacks carried out in the northernmost province of Mozambique - Cabo Delgado. Islamic radical groups allegedly associated with al-Shabaab and other extremists are spreading chaos and terror. Its origin comes from other African states located in northern Mozambique (DRC and Tanzania), and it is clear that thelevel of violence has been increasing (the number of deaths and displaced persons has increased considerably in recent times) and since the government forces have not taken yet swift, adequate and effective measures, the population has decided to act for itself: community policing and aid in police investigation.
Surely this is not the ideal solution. This situation has already been perpetuated for 8 months, and although the provincial authorities have expressed words of comfort and ensure that citizens' safety will prevail, the latest events do not anticipate a resolution in the short run.
These radical groups live mainly from illegal trading networks and seek to captivate poor and unemployed young people who cannot integrate into the more moderate islam range.
It should also be noted that the investments in Cabo Delgado are evolving, basically aiming the exploitation of natural gas, counting on the commitment of some of the world's leading oil companies.
Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant