ANGOLA: João Lourenço - A "sea of uncertainties"

The President João Lourenço (JLo), during his presidential campaign defended strongly   the fight against corruption.

After the exoneration of Isabel dos Santos from Sonangol's administration (the golden egg of Angola according to the President), several heralds of Angolan and Portuguese democracy came out of their woodwork, having extolled and highlighted the courageous act of the President. This act was the culmination of a cleaning process that JLo carried out in the main public companies of Angola at the economic, natural resources and media level. His targets were clearly focused on the  José Eduardo dos Santos' sons (JES - President of Angola for 38 years) and the Angolan elite that benefited from his protective mantle. At this point, the fight against corruption that he so much praised during  presidential campaign seems to be taking a different turn, yet...

As we know, there is clear evidence that institutionalized corruption in Angolan power bodies  is the biggest issue the country has faced since it became independent.  Words spoken constantly by JLo condemning corruption, with a style much more cheerful than JES could mean signs of change, however, one can see clearly evidence there's a kind of corruption endemic to the MPLA. In fact, what we have witnessed is a traditional replacement. JES"friends"  left and the most important and profitable positions of the Angolan state, are being held by JLo's "comrades". So from the outset it seems that we are witnessing a mere cosmetic action perpetrated by the MPLA, this time with different protagonists: the friends of whom is in power.

We have already this on several occasions and countries around the world, even when they claim to uphold the rule of law.

We also recall that at the beginning of this century, when JLo was available to take office as President, JES did not like it and assured that the current Angolan President would be relegated to a rather secondary role in the MPLA nomenclature. Only when he returned to the limelight in 2014 and took over the ministry of defense, did JLo once again gained prominence, culminating in his nomination as presidential candidate.

We believe that nowadays, relations between the two are cold, even because the main rivals of Isabel dos Santos, once again assumed a decisive role - Carlos Saturnino who returned to lead the country's main company and source of wealth -Sonangol and Manuel Vicente ( former vice president of Angola) who was protected by the nomenclature to the last consequences against the Portuguese State, apropos Operation Fizz (Manuel Vicente is accused of active corruption and money laundering in Portuguese territory). As usual in Portuguese diplomacy, at least as far as relations with Angola are concerned, we have had a more political than legal decision by the Lisbon Court of Appeal, referring the case to Angola, after a long "tug-of-war" between Portugal and Angola. Cooperation and the cut of relations between the two countries were at stake.

JLo, meanwhile, made his first visit to Europe as Angola's President.  The first country chosen was France, but it is a sign, once again for Portugal that cooperation exists, yes, but under the terms defined by the Angolan state. Portugal is a country that is part of the Angolan state's sphere of influence, but it is not among the first ones.

The visit to France was rated by the Minister for Media João de Melo as a huge success. This visit, in fact, made some sense. The large investments by French oil company Total in Angola (the oldest foreign operator and No. 1 in Angola) is perhaps the main factor.

From the geo-strategic point of view, since Angola is close to several former French colonies, it can also support this proximity, since Angola has its army basically organized and is able to intervene in a crisis situation. Hence, he may have "winked" at the international organization of the Francophone. It might be good for the Portuguese government to reflect on the constant display of weakness and submission that it has been demonstrating over the last few years and to rethink  CPLP's (Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries) role.

It is fair to say, this visit did not bring anything new. The financial crisis continues to overshadow the Angolan state.  Yet, this didn't prevent JLo plus his entourage from renting and traveling in a luxury plane belonging to a private Chinese company, which allegedly cost € 70,000 an hour!

The Courts keep deciding, taking into account the interests of the elite which holds power, thus not reflecting a true rule of law.

The police is still acting arbitrarily, violently suppressing peaceful demonstrations. The disgusting death squads stubbornly remain, though the Criminal Investigation Service denies such existence.

Health care remains chaotic throughout the whole country. Angola is one of the countries which has one of the highest infant mortality rate. 

Therefore, we need to ascertain if this new context of Angolan politics is not merely a reinforcement of the president's power. One shouldn't forget that JES, when asuming presidency, also got rid of some annoying elements for the exercise of his power. 

Although JLo is well acquainted with the military because of his past, and apparently having them under his control, we cannot but be somewhat apprehensive.  On some issues he's being assisted by former JES companions.

The Angolan civil society is more dynamic and diligent than ever. We believe angolans will not pass over in silence,  if JLo embarks on a path of hidden authoritarianism. The defense of freedom, democracy and progress, cannot remain associated with mere vain and fruitless sentences.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations